Binäre Optionen Strategien Intermediate Traders Für Händler mittleren Grades sind die eingeführten Handelsstrategien etwas komplexer. Die meisten von ihnen decken den Bereich des Risikomanagements ab. Diese Strategien sind auf die Verlängerung der Händler Investitionskapital ausgerichtet, so dass er lange genug im Spiel zu gewinnen gewinnt. Advanced Traders Um die verschiedenen Strategien zu verstehen, die hier diskutiert werden, muss man ein solides Verständnis über die verschiedenen Handelskonzepte, die in diesen Handelsstrategien verwendet werden, verstehen. Trader, die eine solide Grundlage haben, wie Optionen arbeiten, haben eine schwierige Zeit zu begreifen, wie diese Strategien funktionieren. Als solche empfehlen wir nur fortgeschrittene Händler, die Strategien, die hier erwähnt werden, zu übernehmen. Empfohlene Brokers Bonus bis zu 100 - Bedingungen gelten. Investoren können ihr gesamtes Kapital verlieren. VisitBinary-Optionen Lernen Sie, wie man Binär-Optionen handelt Binäre Optionen gibt es schon seit einer Weile, aber vor kurzem (seit 2008) waren ein Hit unter den neuen Händlern gewesen. Sie wurden ursprünglich als Digitale Optionen eingeführt und im Grunde genommen bedeutet Binärwerte 2 Werte und im Falle von Finanzmitteln aufwärts und abwärts. Diese Serie widmet sich der Lehre der Logistik von Handel Binäre Optionen, die in8217s und out8217s zusammen mit verschiedenen Binär-Optionen Trading-Strategien. Da Binär-Optionen Derivate sind (auf Basis der zugrunde liegenden Vermögenswerte), können die hier dargestellten Lektionen mit anderen Serien überlappen. Vor allem der Fall mit Forex, da ist der Markt, dass ich meine Aufmerksamkeit zu konzentrieren, weil ich finde es einfacher, Forex als den zugrunde liegenden Vermögenswert für Binary Options Trading im Vergleich zu anderen Märkten zu verwenden. So, die Lektionen hier geben Ihnen die Möglichkeit, Forex Binär-Optionen handeln. Es doesn8217t nehmen ein Genie zu erkennen, wie fehlerhaft die binäre Optionen-Industrie ist heutzutage. Internet-Vermarkter haben die Märkte durch Überschwemmungen mit irreführenden Informationen und Produkten zerstört. Eine einfache Suche auf Youtube oder Google wird 1008217 von binären Optionen Betrug erbringen. Ich konnte nicht stehen und zusehen, wie immer mehr Händler auf einer täglichen Basis betrogen wurden. So I8217ve machte eine Reihe von binären Optionen Bildungs-Videos hier bei Financial Trading School zu helfen, neue und alte Händler gleichermaßen. Als you8217ll bald erkennen, nachdem ich meine Videos, I8217m nicht hier zu bullshit Sie oder Ihre Zeit verschwenden. Zur gleichen Zeit jedoch I8217m nicht hier, um Ihre Hand zu halten, Handel binäre Optionen ist eine harte Aufgabe und ist nicht für jedermann geeignet. Alle Videos I8217ve zur Verfügung gestellt sind kostenlos und auf Youtube hochgeladen, so können Sie sie in Ihrer Freizeit zu sehen, wann immer Sie wollen. Alle Lektionen werden aus einem neutralen Standpunkt gelehrt, was Sie mit den Informationen tun, ist Ihnen überlassen. Dies ist, wo die harte Arbeit kommt in, you8217re erwartet, dass in der Bemühung, um herauszufinden. Don8217t Sorgen zu viel, aber ich bieten viele Chart-Beispiele, um die Theorie zu illustrieren. Unterhalb you8217ll finden Sie den vollständigen Index aller meiner Lektionen in der Binary Options (BO) - Serie. Klicken Sie einfach auf die Kurs-Code, um den Unterricht zu sehen, auch beachten Sie die Voraus-und Co-Requisiten. Ich hoffe, die Videos helfen Ihnen, wie Sie Venture in die Welt der binären Optionen. PS: Einige der Lektionen wurden von meinem ursprünglichen, wie man Binär-Optionen-Serie von Financial Trading Journal genommen, so dass Sie möglicherweise einige Überlappungen in Inhalt zu sehen. Binäre Optionen 100 Serie Wie in der Universität, Intro-Kurse umfassen breite Themen innerhalb einer Disziplin und that8217s genau das, was die Binär-Optionen 100-Serie ist. Innerhalb der 100-Serie, lernen Sie über die Grundlagen der binären Optionen, Logistik, wie Dinge funktionieren, Mechanik des Handels und grundlegende Strategien, die Sie lehren, wie man Binär-Optionen handeln. Denken Sie daran, dass dies die 100-Serie, so dass es8217s beabsichtigt, 8220easy8221 werden, da it8217s nur die Intro-Serie. Die komplizierteren Strategien und Aspekte des Handels werden in der Reihe 200 und 300 abgedeckt werden, während alle der 8220higher Ebene Denkprozesse8221 wird für die 400-Serie gespeichert werden. BO101 8211 Einführung in Binär-Optionen (Aktualisiert am 16.01.2013) Erläuterung dessen, was binäre Optionen sind, wie sie funktionieren und wo Binär-Optionen handeln, ist grundsätzlich nur ein allgemeiner Überblick für die Branche. Bei einer Nussschale handelt es sich um digitale Optionen, die die Direktionalität des zugrunde liegenden Vermögenswerts handeln, wobei feste Handelsgrößen verwendet werden, die in einem festen Zeitrahmen abgelaufen sind. Keine Einzahlung erforderlich Demo-Konto FreeBinaryDemoForever BO103 8211 Empfohlene Charting-Plattformen Nur ein kurzer Clip auf dem Charting-Plattformen für ihre jeweiligen Instrumente zu verwenden. Ich bekomme diese Frage die ganze Zeit von meinen Schülern, also hier gehen Sie Co-Requisites: GT109. GT110. GT111. GT112. GT113 und GT115. Dies ist wahrscheinlich das häufigste, aber auch missverstandene Konzept von Binary Options Trading. Sie müssen wissen, die Break-even-Verhältnis, um zu erfahren, welcher Prozentsatz der Trades Sie gewinnen müssen, um Gewinn zu erzielen. Download: financialtradingschoolwp-contentuploads201205BO104-Break-Even-Ratio. xls Dies ist die Newbie-Strategie, die ich zurück verwendet, wenn ich begann Trading Binary Options. Ziemlich einfaches Konzept, bekam es von Dog8217s Thread auf HotStockMarkets. Nicht sicher, welche Chart-Timeframes sollten Sie sich auf Dies sollte das Thema der Kommissionierung der entsprechenden Zeitrahmen zu suchen basierend auf Ihrem Ablaufzeiten zu erklären. Voraussetzung: GT106 Pinbar Kerzenstäbchen haben einen kleinen Körper mit einem langen Docht auf der einen Seite, vor allem verwendet, um Umkehrmuster zu erkennen. Ich gehe über einige Diagrammbeispiele hier von meinen Newbie-Tagen. Voraussetzung: GT105 Doji Kerzenstäbchen haben einen kleinen Körper mit einem langen Docht auf beiden Seiten, vor allem verwendet, um neue Richtungsmuster zu erkennen. Ich gehe über Diagramm-Beispiele von meinen Newbie-Tagen hier auch, wenn auch nicht so viele. Voraussetzung: GT105 Engulfing Kerzenstäbe kommen in Paaren, wo der aktuelle Kerzenstock größer ist als die vorherige Kerze. Wie Doji8217s und Pinbar8217s werden diese hauptsächlich verwendet, um Umkehrmuster zu erkennen. Einige der Kartenbeispiele beinhalten die MSM-Strategie, die ich zu diesem Zeitpunkt noch nicht überarbeitet habe. Also bitte beziehen sich auf Ep 9 8211 MSM-Strategie in meinem alten 8220How to Trade Binär-Optionen 8221 Serie Voraussetzung: GT105 Nehmen Sie Small Trades, um Ihre Demo FreeBinaryDemoForever Neue Händler sind oft mit dem Unterschied im Preis zwischen Charting-Plattformen und Broker betroffen. In dieser Lektion, ich erkläre, dass es doesn8217t müssen ein Anliegen und die Logik hinter, warum. Nun, da die Grundlagen des Handels abgedeckt sind, können wir anfangen Sorgen über Money Management und die Logistik hinter jedem Handel. In dieser Lektion gehe ich durch die verschiedenen Methoden des Geld - und Risikomanagements, während ich Binäroptionen trage. Obwohl es 4 verschiedene Arten von Vermögenswerten, die mit Binär-Optionen gehandelt werden kann, bevorzuge ich persönlich Forex und Studenten, die meine Lehren sehen in der Regel folgen auch. Die nächste logische Frage ist, die sind die 8220best8221 Forex-Paare zu handeln Diese Lektion ist in der 100-Serie aus einem Grund platziert. Neue Händler finden oft den Drang zu handeln rund um Pressemitteilung, weil they8217ve gesehen die 8220aftermath8221 und denke es8217s einfach, Nachrichten zu handeln. Nun, it8217s eigentlich nicht, ist Nachrichten eine der häufigsten Ursachen zu wischen ein neues trader8217s Konto. Ich skizziere die Gründe, warum Dinge schief gehen können vor und nach der Pressemitteilung in dieser Lektion. Da Binary Options ein derivatives Instrument ist, können Sie nur die zugrundeliegenden Märkte handeln. Wenn die zugrunde liegenden Märkte aufgrund von Volumenproblemen oder Liquidität schlecht sind, dann haben Sie wahrscheinlich eine harte Zeit Handel als gut. So, in dieser Lektion, gehe ich über die 8220best8221 Handelszeiten für binäre Optionen. Voraussetzungen: GT107 amp GT116 Unabhängig von einer guten oder schlechten Handel, sollten Sie wissen, wie zu reagieren, so dass Ihre Emotionen don8217t beeinflussen Ihren nächsten Handel. Obwohl dies eine Psychologie-Lektion ist, wird es hier platziert, weil es mehr zu Binär-Optionen gehört, als es für den allgemeinen Handel. Apropos, baut es auf Inhalte bereits in der Psychologie Unterricht der GT200-Serie vorgestellt. Binary Options 200 Series Nachdem Sie nun die Grundlagen der 100er Serie gelernt haben, taucht die Binary Options 200 Serie jetzt in die Zwischenstufen ein. Der primäre Fokus der Serie 200 wird auf Handel Binär-Optionen mit Preis-Action-Techniken. Plus einige der Lektionen zu Themen, die in der 100-Serie diskutiert werden. Im Fokus stehen verschiedene Diagrammbeispiele mit dem Fibonacci Retracement-Zeichenwerkzeug. Voraussetzung: GT118 Wischen Sie einfach mit der Unterstützung nach oben auf FreeBinaryDemoForever Preis Action-Techniken: 8211 BO202: Unterstützung Widerstandsstufen 8211 BO203: Trendlinien 8211 BO204: Bestimmung der Markt-Typen Preis-Aktionsfaktoren: 8211 BO100 Serie: Candle Stick Formationen 8211 BO205: Pattern Formationen 8211 BO209: Zeitplan 8211 BO207: Zeitplan 8211 BO209: Hedging-Strategien 8211 BO209: Hedging-Strategien 8211 Viel mehr kommen in die Zukunft Einführung der 1. von 3 Preis-Action-Techniken. Ein kurzer Überblick darüber, welche Support - und Resistance-Stufen verwendet werden, sowie die grundlegenden Einstellungen für die Diagrammbeispiele in Teil 2 und 3. Voraussetzungen: GT110. GT202 8211 Teil 1 und BO103. BO202 8211 Teil 2. Unterstützung Widerstand Bounces (Warnung: Lektion ist 70 Minuten lang) Detaillierte Erklärung, wie Wahrscheinlichkeit Handel arbeitet für SR-Ebene bounces zusammen mit den Handelsbedingungen und Einträge für die Diagrammbeispiele. Voraussetzungen: BO202 8211 Teil 1 BO202 8211 Teil 3. Unterstützung Widerstand Breakouts (Warnung: Lektion ist 70 Minuten lang) Detaillierte Erklärung, wie Ausbrüche gehandelt werden sollten, Rollen der gebrochenen SR Ebenen zusammen mit Handelseinträgen für die Diagrammbeispiele. Voraussetzungen: BO202 8211 Teil 2 und GT202 8211 Teil 2 Corequisite: GT203 Erleben Sie Trumps Knowledge, starten Sie den Handel auf Demo FreeBinaryDemoForever Einführung der 2. von 3 Preis-Action-Techniken. Ein kurzer Überblick darüber, welche Trendlinien typischerweise verwendet werden, und die grundlegenden Einstellungen für die Diagrammbeispiele in Teil 2. Voraussetzungen: GT111. BO106. BO201 und alle 3 Teile von BO202 BO203 8211 Teil 2. Verwenden von Trendlinien (Warnung: Lektion ist 54 Minuten lang) Detaillierte Erklärung, wie Trendmärkte mit Trendlinien gehandelt werden. Einschließlich, wie man die Punkte, den Wahrscheinlichkeitshandel, Handelseinträge und Winkel der Trendlinien verbindet. Darüber hinaus skizziere ich die verschiedenen Phasen eines Trends: Breakouts, Pullbacks und Fortsetzung. Voraussetzungen: BO203 8211 Teil 1 BO204 8211 Ermittlung der Marktarten Diese Lektion erklärt die dritte und letzte Preisaktionstechnik. Nun da you8217ve beide Techniken unabhängig gelernt, it8217s Zeit, um sie zusammen zu helfen, bestimmen die Markt-Typ. Voraussetzungen: Alle Teile von BO202 und BO203. Sie müssen die Voraussetzung, bevor Sie diese Lektion zu sehen. Diese Lektion ist anders als die anderen, da sie einem 8220test8221-Format folgt, wobei ich 2 Folien habe: 1 Diagramm ohne Anmerkungen und 1 Diagramm mit den annotierten Mustern. Ich pausiere zwischen den Folien, um Ihnen Zeit zu geben, das Muster zu erraten, das innerhalb des Diagramms gefunden wird. So, um diese Lektion voll auszunutzen, sollten Sie die richtige Vorbereitung vor dem Ansehen dieser haben. Voraussetzungen: GT203 BO206 8211 Chart Setups (aka The Big Picture) Ich gehe Sie durch die Schritte, die ich verwende, um meine Charts auf einer wöchentlichen Basis für die FX Weekly Analyse auf meinem Blog gefunden. Dies ist äquivalent zu tun 8220homework8221 als Händler, da es vorteilhaft, vor dem Handel der Märkte vorbereitet werden. Corequisites: GT110, BO106 und die Price Action-Techniken. Vorherige Lektionen haben immer davon ausgegangen, dass Sie die nächste Verfallszeit tauschen und Trades für die nächste Verfallszeit vermeiden sollten, während sie für das aktuelle Verfallsdatum gesperrt sind. Diese Lektion zeigt Ihnen, wie Sie Kerzen zählen, um festzustellen, wann it8217s 8220ok8221 jenseits des aktuellen Ablaufs zu handeln. Testen Sie Ihre Strategie Risk Free auf Demo FreeBinaryDemoForever Diese Lektion ist für diejenigen von Ihnen, didn8217t beachten meine Warnung in BO113: News Trading (Teil 1) gemacht. Jedoch im Gegensatz zu dieser Lektion, ist dies in der 200-Serie platziert. You8217re erwartet, Vorkenntnisse der Preisaktion von diesem Punkt haben (BO202 8211 BO204) zu verstehen, wie auf die Märkte reagieren. Dieses hilft, wenn you8217re um Nachrichten Freigabe handeln. Für diejenigen unter Ihnen, die Teil 1 beobachtet haben und sofort zu dieser Lektion übersprungen, zumindest sehen Sie den Preis Aktion Lektionen zuerst. Voraussetzung: BO113 amp GT304 Diese Lektion geht weiter von den Themen der GT302: Hedging. Teil 1 konzentriert sich auf die Verringerung Verluste, wo you8217re bereits in Ihrem Handel und Sie müssen sich selbst absichern. Diese Strategien sind in erster Linie für Menschen handeln länger als 10 Minuten Auslaufzeiten ausgerichtet. Ich erkläre, wie kürzere Expiry Trader haben eine harte Zeit Hedging ihre Trades. Wie in GT302, gehe ich durch 3 Szenarien, wo Sie Hedging-Strategien nutzen können. Voraussetzung: GT302 In dieser Lektion geht es um das Thema 8220risk spreading8221, das am Ende des GT303: Diversifikation vorgestellt wurde. Während Teil 1 konzentriert sich auf die Verringerung der Verluste, wenn you8217re bereits im Handel, Teil 2 konzentriert sich auf Methoden, die vor dem Einstieg implementiert werden können. Hinweis: Teil 2 isn8217t explizit ein Ersatz oder eine Ergänzung zu Teil 1, können Sie entweder alleine oder kombiniert. Voraussetzung: GT303 Binäre Optionen 300 Serie Im Gegensatz zu den Baureihen 100 oder 200 wird die Binary Options 300 Serie vor allem auf Binär-Optionen-Trading-Strategien fokussieren. Dies ist im Grunde, was die meisten Leute versuchen, als ein neuer Trader zu finden, aber I8217ve platziert diese Strategien in der 300-Serie aus einem Grund. Neue Händler versuchen oft, die 8220holy grail8221 zu finden, die 8220one8221-Strategie wird 8220work8221 für sie. Was sie nicht verstehen, ist, ohne eine solide Grundlage, die Strategie bedeutungslos. Aus dem Lernen Preis Action in der Serie 200, you8217ll bald erkennen, dass die Mehrheit der Strategien diskutiert hier aus Preis-Action-Techniken abgeleitet ist. Aus diesem Grund habe ich den Preis Action-Lektionen in den Beginn der 200-Serie, da ich diese als die 8220core lessons8221 anzeigen. BO301 8211 60 Zweite Optionen Teil 1: 133 Tick Charts Dies ist überarbeitete 60 Sekunden Optionen-Strategie-Video von Ep 1 meiner ursprünglichen 8220How to Trade Binäre Optionen 8221 Video-Serie. Die neuen Ergänzungen umfassen alle Details, wie Sie Ihre TOS-Charts zu sehen, wie meine, die Charting-Plattform zu bedienen und auch auf die Preisunterschiede zwischen TOS und den Brokern zu berühren. BO301 8211 60 Zweite Optionen Teil 2: Preis-Aktion Dies ist eine vorübergehende Platzhalter-Lektion, bis ich Zeit habe, eine vollständige geblasen Lektion mit Diagramm-Beispiele zu machen. Vorläufig sollte die Methode allein ausreichen. In dieser Lektion, I8217ve skizzierte die Methode, wie man 60 (oder 30) zweite binäre Optionen mit einem Preis-Aktion Ansatz handeln. In Kürze, wenden Sie einfach Preis-Aktion Techniken auf intra-Minuten-Charts. Voraussetzung: BO200 Serie (speziell: BO202, BO203 amp BO204) Handel auf Demo vor dem Handel Live FreeBinaryDemoForever BO302 8211 Stochastischer Oszillator (TBA 8211 Im Folgenden beziehen wir uns auf alte 8220How to Trade Binäre Optionen Serie 8221) BO303 8211 Momentum, Stochastic, MACD Setup TBA 8211 Für jetzt, beziehen sich auf alte 8220How zu handeln Binär-Optionen 8221 Serie) BO304 8211 Heiken Ashi geglättet (TBA 8211 Jetzt beziehen Sie sich auf altes 8220How zum Handel Binäre Optionen 8221 Serie) BO305 8211 Chris Floyd Bounce Mod (TBA 8211 Für jetzt, Beziehen sich auf alte 8220How to Trade Binär-Optionen 8221 Serie) Binäre Optionen 400-Serie Die 400-Serie enthält fortgeschrittene Themen, nicht geeignet für die andere Serie. You8217ll nur schätzen diese Lektionen, wenn you8217ve für eine lange Zeit gehandelt, weil für einen neuen Trader, diese Lektionen scheinen magisch. Aber für einen erfahrenen Trader, könnte dies, dass zusätzliche Kante, die Sie benötigen. Darüber hinaus benötigen die hier enthaltenen Lektionen Sie den Unterricht in der früheren Reihe gemeistert haben. Einige Lektionen werden ganz nagelneu, aber zum größten Teil, können Sie von diesen Lektionen als der Höhepunkt der früheren Lektionen denken. BO401 8211 Zeitsensitive Trades (TBA) BO402 8211 Martingale Trading (TBA) Professional Forex Trader Strategie und Taktik Professional Forex Trader Strategie und Taktik Gewinner uk forex awards 2015 - 2016 ukforexawards. Die tun das richtige Ding Setup beruht auf Impuls, um Gewinne zu generieren. Jordanien sitzt, als Blut über sein Gesicht stürzt. Es ist wahr, dass Ihr Körper Früchte und Gemüse braucht, ihre Nährstoffe jedoch, dass frische Produkte viel besser als Konserven. 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Variko-London We know what it means to be helpless when it comes to sex We are ready to help madfairy And what would we do without your excellent idea 8 of 10 on the basis of 49658 ReviewOn a trip I met a Swiss insurance guy and we had an interesting discussion. He said that the elites are shooting out way ahead of the masses and accumulating excess cash. They are not able to spend it, are are not really able to invest it productively leaving excess unused non productive capital. This seemed like a powerful idea to me. Negative rates, low interest are either causes or results of the glut. Some of the super rich are trying to use their excess wealth to change the world, such as Gates, or the FB guy in medical research. Chair likes to say capital goes to good use, but here is an anomaly resulting from too much cash. It39s the idea that it just starts piling up8230.you just can39t spend it fast enough. Like the scene in that movie about the drug dealers having all the cash sitting in basements and rotting away. It39s like money in bank accounts, rotting away. anonymous writes: Or finding its way to equities, despite rate-driven, developed pre-08 models. The ocean of money is coming down the canal, and ultimately must capitulate, having nowhere else to go but the certain, inexorable attrition of it. I grew up in the 70s and when I hear OPEC it always brings back vague, distant memories of waiting in the gas car line in our Pontiac LeMans, Nixon and the Bee Gees, sometimes all at once. What I did not know then which I know now, is that in some countries when a group of competitors gets together to set production and price levels it is considered an illegal activity, called collusion. Proving again when the crime is big enough it can go unfettered. Fortunately, the arrangement is along the lines of a Puzo novel where enforcement and compliance are very difficult and the family business might not make it to the next generation. There are larger forces at work including cheaper alternatives, better efficiency, new reserves, and the technology to get at them. I predict in the years and decades ahead that OPEC will be looked back on with a wistful relevance somewhere between ABBA and frozen fish sticks. Among the drivers behind minimally invasive medical device development were quicker surgeries and shorter hospital stays in response to ACA. It appears that ACA will be eliminated with the new administration. Is there a chance the medical device market will rethink this strategy What about video physician visits (now offered by my provider) or other cost savings approaches What are possible plays for speculators Due to some unfortunate circumstances I have had occasion to spend much of the thanksgiving holiday alone. However I had a chance to read some great books which I can recommend. John Dos Passos, U. S.A. Beautiful paen to America in its plenitude. Tom Reiss, The Black Count . Amazingly well researched book about the real count of montecristo and a authors love for his n39er do well father who turned out in later life to be a man of principle. Also hybrid vigor. Nicholas Higham, Princeton Companion to Applied Mathematics . How modeling, and mathematics are used in our everyday life and should be used in many more of our pursuits. Some chapters quite accessible and suggestive. Stan Gibbilisco, Calculus Know It All. A very easy to read review of derivatives, integrals, and analytic geometry with a small chapter on differential equations. Simple and nicely formatted. Easy guide to math fall river press, very good for middle schoolers. H. L Mencken, Prejudices . The best essay on Beethoven and capitalism I39ve ever read. Stirring. Magnificent. One thing I39ve noticed at B and N is that their hard bound textbooks in most fields now sell for average of 275. Also that their spoken words section is down to about 25 titles out of say 100,000 titles in the store. Also, that most of their activity is in gifts and teen age reading. The recent campaign was hardly reticent about quotthe Russian threatquot that was, along with Trump39s pussy-grabbing audio tape, the Clintons39 and the U. S. media39s propaganda hole card. What is now scary for everyone invested in international crisis is that the American candidate who takes Foreign Affairs magazine seriously just lost because the U. S. electorate in the Mid-West and South no longer believe in the notion that foreign wars make money. (Only Wall Street does.) Putin and Trump are likely to reach the same kind of understanding that the Americans finally reached with the British when Grant (there39s that man again) and Hamilton Fish settled the Alabama claims. The U. S. would not invade Canada, the British and their sometime European allies would stop scheming to get control of Mexico, and both of them would establish economic control over the Caribbean and the South America and ignore whatever the Spanish had to say in the matter. The Russians will not to invade the Baltic countries or change their western border, the Americans will promise to stop their adventuring in the Ukraine and other games of stupid chicken, and the U. S. and Russia will establish economic control over the Middle East to the exclusion of whatever the Eurozone has to say about it. The Muslims will be free to fight among themselves, as the South Americans did for the rest of the 19th century. The believers in the religion of peace will continue to buy arms from both the Russians and Americans, as the South Americans did from the British and Americans. But, the two major oil and gas producers outside the Middle East will be the ones who control what happens overall in quotthe energy marketquot. Dr. Price39s recent remarks: quotthe problem I have right now is that we are imprisoned by a system that doesn39t provide high-quality care for many individuals in our society, especially at the lower end of the economic spectrum, because of the rules that have been put in place by the federal government. So, if we freed up the patients to select the kind of coverage that they want, we would get a model and a system that actually worked for them and not for government. quot With all this give-and-take regarding the election and, primarily, the intellect (or, pejoratively, the lack of it) of the constituency that carried the day, has anyone stopped to consider that America (and many other Western quotdemocracies) is experiencing its quotHoward Beale Moment. quot For those unfamiliar with the movie quotNetworkquot, the imaginary key that unlocked a popular (but brief) revolt was when TV announcer Beale urged his audience to quotget up out of your chairs, open the window, stick your head out, and yell, and say it: quotI39M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I39M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMOREquotquot And going further: quotTelevision is not the truth Television is a God-damned amusement park Television is a circus, a carnival, a traveling troupe of acrobats, storytellers, dancers, singers, jugglers, side-show freaks, lion tamers, and football players. We39re in the boredom-killing business So if you want the truth8230 Go to God Go to your gurus Go to yourselves Because that39s the only place you39re ever going to find any real truth. quot I39ve only posted once recently and that was to explain the unreported, under-appreciated anger that is prevalent in my part of the world8211 a county that went for Trump with 71 of the vote8211 an incredible plurality for an area that had long been Democrat. It39s all well and good to move Rosa Parks and representatives of similar victim groups to the front of the bus. But you39d better be real damn careful who you push to the back of it. By Eddie van der Walt, Sofia Horta e Costa and Rita Nazareth (Bloomberg) The Donald Trump effect lost its sway over global financial markets as investors shifted to new threats including the future of Italy39s government and fled to the safety of bonds and gold. U. S. stocks slipped from all-time highs as investors speculated that gains sparked by expectations for brisker growth under a new administration went too far too quickly. Treasuries climbed, while gold pared its monthly decline. Italian banks led losses in Europe as Prime Minister Matteo Renzi faces a key referendum that may see voters reject his constitutional reform and prompt his resignation. A fund that holds stocks in companies that could gain if the U. S. lifts trade restrictions with Cuba had the biggest rally since December 2014 after former President Fidel Castro39s death. Yanki Onen writes: One thing that won39t change for the foreseeable future is that people will take profit come month-end and the market will recover what it has given and then some before it is over. width374 height277 In its first Naturalization Act, passed in 1790, Congress required two years of residency and no quotnoticequot time. quotNoticequot time was the delay imposed after a person formally declared their intention to become a citizen. In the Naturalization Act of 1795, the residency time was extended to five years and a 2 year notice time requirement was enacted so, the total time to citizenship went from 2 years to 7 years. John Adams then tried to literally slam the door shut on extensions of citizenship to immigrants. He and the Federalist majority enacted the 1798 Naturalization Act. That law extended the residency requirement to 14 years and notice time to 5 years, almost tripling total time for citizenship from 7 years to 19. In 1800 the Democratic-Republicans ran the table, electing Thomas Jefferson President and winning 68 of the 106 seats in the House of Representatives - one of the great landslides in American political history. That led to the last change in the time requirements for naturalization for the remainder of the 19th century the terms of the 1795 Act, adopted by George Washington, were restored: residency 5 years, notice time 2 years, total time: 7 years. All Naturalization Acts applied only to quotfree white personsquot. The only two changes after that were these: (1) In 1855 alien wives of U. S. citizen husbands were granted automatic citizenship (but not, of course, alien husbands of U. S. citizen wives) (2) In 1870 (yet again Ulysses Grant does the right thing) naturalization was opened quotto persons of African descentquot. (Grant wanted all racial restrictions eliminated but Congress was unwilling to accept quotAsiansquot for citizenship, only for immigration.) Francois Fillion, a former prime minister who compares himself to Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, resoundingly defeated Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppe in the runoff election primary Sunday, garnering 66.5 of votes. Just two weeks ago, polls had shown Juppe, a centrist with bipartisan appeal with a comfortable lead. Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me twice. Shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on the pollsters and media. Scott Brooks writes: The pendulum is swinging hard away from the leftists. Soon the non-leftists will screw things up and it will swing the other way. The left (including the MSM) are like cockroaches8230..not even the nuclear bomb of Trump can wipe them out. Ralph Vince writes: I think we39re witnessing something bigger than a pendulum swinging 8212 I think we39re watching a major, glacial, cultural shift going on now, around the planet large than politics, where the last vestiges of the last century are being slowly self-lulled into extinction, and many other things going on. I think the quotZIRP minus minusquot world, the survival of the ending of easing, and other quotperfect stormquot factors are colliding to make for an explosive rise in asset values sans a corresponding rise in rates, that may persist for decades. The greatest free-market transference of wealth in human history is already upon is for those willing to assume risk, to be followed by legions of those who must assume ever-greater risk. Never has there been such powerful feedback and driving mechanisms that have fallen into place. And as I39ve said here, I think most people are on the wrong side of this, which further buttresses the case. As I mentioned yesterday, the quotSnowflakequot generation (who I regard as the new quotgreatest generationquot) are modern-day Spartans of productivity, trained in it from birth. I have infiltrated their camps, I have gone in and worked with them for months at a time, wanting to learn this-or-that (and getting paid to o it) telling myself that when I leave, I leave knowing what they know (oh, yes indeed this coerced humility from me) and I walked out the doors with heir brains in mason jars, amazed at their work ethic, embarrassed by my own in comparison. Every preceding generation had quotno such thing as dumb questions, quot but theirs. What an engine, what a perfect storm, what a cultural cusp we are upon. The so-called quotsnowflakequot generation works much harder than we boomers did, is more educated, lives in their parent39s basements and doesn39t know what 4 growth looks like. They are extremely efficient, and put the rest of us to shame. When this gets going, for real, it39s really going to cook. A little kindling from someone who knows how to do it now, a 15 corp tax rate and the great repatriation, among many other factors, many of which were going to occur regardless of who was elected (the ultra-strong market, having not clinched with the termination of QE, the sideways, bear-market-in-time since 2014, the ocean of money which must seek risk to meet liabilities, etc.) but Trump would be fastest on the (inevitable, ultimately) repatriation (which, even at current spending and receipts levels, puts us at a balanced budget for the year of the repatriation, the first time since 2000), and trade (which is directly accounted for in GDP. 170 billion less in annual balance of trade outflows is 1 added to GDP, before the multiplier effect, which is X-fold in addition to this) and we are at the start of what will ultimately be the bull of our lifetime, and likely outlive many of us. So whereas the markets and economy were bound to perk up, I thought Trump could get it going posthaste. (Plus, I like what he said about women.) The snowflakes deserve a rocking economy, and will be fueling it. Over the busy Thanksgiving holiday, our house was filled with guests and great holiday cheer. Unfortunately, someone inadvertently stepped on a rat bait pellet and brought it underfoot, into the house. Our F1 Savannah cat and our wonderful Maine Coon decided to sample the delights of the tasty pellet. I didn39t catch it until yesterday 4:50 PM when I discovered our cats vomiting and very sick. I took them to the 24 hour emergency vet in Sarasota. Long story short, Syd, our Savannah died around 7PM and Kitty Kitty our Maine Coon is still hanging on by a thread. However, the blood tests show that poison has destroyed Kitty Kitty39s liver. In an hour or so, we are going back over to the emergency vet tonight to say goodbye to Kitty Kitty and put her down because that is the most humane course of action. We39re so sad, words cannot describe what we39re feeling at this moment. That being said, please keep an eye on your pets and watch what they do, where they go, and what they eat. Be on the lookout for potential hazards and if your pets go outside, keep an eagle eye on them. So many substances are toxic to cats and dogs8230things like chocolate8230and rat poison for that matter. We lost 50 of our household and maybe (I don39t know how), it could have been prevented. Tonight, give your pets some love and an extra hug8230..we won39t be doing that again. In a second installment on Washington let me echo Mr. Jov39s comments. Washington39s story is not what he was in 1775, but what he became over the course of the next eight years. The Revolution started as grievances by the elite over restrictions on western land expansion, credit expansion and taxes. But these were primarily quotrich peoplesquot problems. The taxes affected luxury goods for the wealthy or mercantile traders. It was initially a revolution for practical reasons not ideals. The Revolution became great when Washington and others turned the fight into an ideological war described early on by Thomas Paine in Common Sense. The war turned on the higher ideals of Freedom, Liberty and a fight against the foreign tyranny. What is most astounding about Washington is how he was able to keep a standing army in the field for those eight years of incredible suffering. The infrequent battles were difficult enough, but the real hardship came during the winters and years of deprivation. He lead an army with no clothes, shoes, weapons, pay, food, or shelter. The men, for good reason, enlisted for only very short periods, and Washington was constantly losing half his army to disease, desertion or end-of-enlistment. He somehow managed to keep them together and perhaps those higher ideals and his example of leadership were the glue. The average Continental had little to gain personally and truly was fighting for the greater cause of Liberty. It was also a time where chivalry and honor still ruled the day. In an amazing gesture, after the bloody siege of Yorktown and the British surrender, Cornwallis and British officers were invited to a celebratory ball by Washington. The Revolutionary elite still respected the European elite. The 8000 British regulars however, were resigned as prisoners. The larger point being the country has always grappled with leadership39s elite status and the blood, toil and tears of the rest of us. Washington was able to convince the country by words and deeds he was of the people. A farmer, statesman, warrior, but not a ruling elite. He put his life on the line countless time to prove that. In my mind he did prove that. Very few of our leaders since who call themselves public servants have served anyone other than themselves. That is why Washington remains great. First Brexit, then Trump, now Fillon in France. The political pendulum swings - a reader I think we39re witnessing something bigger than a pendulum swinging 8212 I think we39re watching a major, glacial, cultural shift going on now, around the planet larger than politics, where the last vestiges of the last century are being slowly self-lulled into extinction, and many other things are going on. I think the quotZIRP minus minusquot world, the survival of the ending of easing, and other quotperfect stormquot factors are colliding to make for an explosive rise in asset values sans a corresponding rise in rates, that may persist for decades. The greatest free-market transference of wealth in human history is already upon us for those willing to assume risk, who will be followed by legions of those who must assume ever-greater risk to keep up with the times. Never have there been such powerful feedback and driving mechanisms that have fallen into place. And as I39ve said here, I think most people are on the wrong side of this, are cautious and doubtful, which further buttresses the case. As I mentioned yesterday, the quotSnowflakequot generation (who I regard as the new quotgreatest generationquot) are modern-day Spartans of productivity, trained in it from birth. I have infiltrated their camps, I have gone in and worked with them for months at a time, wanting to learn this-or-that (and getting paid to do it) telling myself that when I leave, I leave knowing what they know (oh, yes indeed this coerced humility from me) and I walked out the doors with heir brains in mason jars, amazed at their work ethic, embarrassed by my own in comparison. Every preceding generation had quotno such thing as dumb questions, quot but theirs. What an engine, what a perfect storm, what a cultural cusp we are upon. Steve Jovanovich adds: There is no pendulum. History has neither meter nor rhythm there is only the sequence of events and the probabilities that those contain. Was it probable that the Europeans would have imperial civil war among themselves in the first decades of the 20th century Absolutely they had been practicing for one with mass armies for more than a century. Was it predictable that war would begin because of an assassination in the Balkans in the summer of 1914 Absolutely not. If Paddy Power had been offering odds, they would have been worse than Trump39s were 2 months ago. AFTER hearing the news of Sarajevo, both the German Kaiser and the British Foreign Minister thought it was a good time to take their summer holidays. As for Scott39s theory about the MSM being permanently out of touch, they are what they have been ever since the Ochs family decided that they should get into the business of buying ink and paper - the voice of the people who own the cities. Their trouble is that, unlike the cockroaches, they cannot easily move to the country. quotThe newsquot of the Trump election is that, for the first time in 14 censuses, the areas of the country with above median population density are showing lower growth rates than those with below median density. The major urban cores and the near-in suburbs are losing the race with the towns, villages and exurbs. And, as our host and others have kindly taught us all, the trend is all. I know gold bugs who thought Trump would be bullish because quothe is going to reflatequot. But I remind them that the reason they went into physical, in the first place, was to keep their assets off radar. Trump policies, however, should encourage transparent economic activity via decreased rates of taxation. So I tell them that the main incentive to hold Gold has been removed. Is this correct Sam Marx writes: Not entirely. Trump is heavily involved in real estate and will be president with a 20 billion dollar national debt. This indicates to me that he will be partial to an above average rate of inflation to enhance his real estate39s value and a cheaper dollar to pay off the national debt and his mortgages. With an above average rate of inflation, investors will invest in real estate, REITs, gold and silver. I was a lifeguard at Coney Island beach and Brighton beach (Brooklyn) for 5 summers from 2008 to 2012. There are about 1000-ish lifeguards patrolling this 2.5-mile continuous stretch of beach. All lifeguards are selected based on a swim test which is being able to quickly swim 440 meters (about 18 laps in a 25-meter pool.) If you can swim that distance in less than 7:40 then you can work at a pool and if you can swim it in under 6:40 then you can work at a beach. This meant that most of the lifeguards were about 17-22 y. o. high-energy males and the location meant that you had a very wide range of personalities. The 2.5-mile beach is split into 22 bays and each bay had a leader-lifeguard who had a few lifeguards under him. With reference to this video, I think the personality trait that I most often saw in the leaders was that they were always accepting responsibility for their followers and also they were always communicating and working with their superiors. Those who couldn39t do that were quickly turned back into the followers and a new leader was selected. Those It39s rare for me so find such a good message in a video this brief so I really enjoyed it and thought I39d share. Does anyone have experience with this kind of blame-everything-away vs accept-all-responsibility attitude Or does anyone have any critique of this guy39s explanation I would be interested in hearing. We are very close to 100 of probabilities the Fed is going to increase interest rates. JY remarks triggered another wave of selling. If the threat is worse than the execution what else can we expect May be we have seen a short term low on bonds When a virtual tsunami hits, the markets tend to thrash around for a time until they figure it out. If you individually tend to be prescient, go with your instincts. But if your opinions first need some direction from the markets, how long do you wait Put another way, how many time periods does it take before the detritus left by the tsunami clears There are several guidelines. Is the tsunami a one-off event, or is it a rolling event. For example, we all thought Brexit was one-off, but now with court challenges it appears to have legs. One-off events clear faster, obviously, since the rolling ones have the possibility of reversal or modification. With more quotprofessionally-tradedquot markets, detritus clears faster. Those who take positions in forex, futures and options (particularly the writers) do not have the luxury of time. Or more to the point, they do not have the margin money. If you look at market-derived information you must be conscious of intra-day movement, particularly that from the two most important times of the day. The more amateur the market, the more time it takes before you get a clear picture. In this case of course we are talking bonds and stocks, but particularly stocks. But even though those guys tend to act slowly, the markets clear remarkably fast. How long Typically between 4 and 8 trading days. So we are just now getting there. Obviously the lesson for the spec is to watch the leveraged markets. Now, a sidebar question for the quottechniciansquot: what do you do with the information (i. e. prices) that occurred during the tsunami One of our favorite gurus, a CalTech AI expert we call BikerBoy says, quotYou never, ever throw away information. quot So, in effect, the markets have tightened monetary conditions without the Fed acting. If the Fed raises rates in December, this will place some additional downward pressure on both M and V, and hence on nominal GDP. Thus, the markets have reduced the timeliness and potential success of the coming tax reductions. Another negative initial condition is that the dollar has risen this year, currently trading close to the 13 year high. The highly relevant Chinese yuan has slumped to a seven year low. These events will force disinflationary, if not deflationary forces into the US economy. Corporate profits, which had already fallen back to 2011 levels will be reduced due to several considerations. Pricing power will be reduced, domestic and international market share will be lost and profits of overseas subs will be reduced by currency conversion. Similarly, the unveiling of QE1 raised expectations of a runaway inflation. Yet, neither happened. The economics are not different. Under present conditions, it is our judgment that the declining secular trend in Treasury bond yields remains intact. John Floyd writes: The conclusion they draw demands some merit in my view while we await further info. But, apart from recent media coverage the US is basically unchanged for the year, see attached chart of the TWI. While the Fed clearly considers the US by their own models the impact is not exceedingly large. On the US I would ask this question. If corporations have not been confident to hire full time employees, expand in R and D, capital spending, etc. over the past several years is something going to change over the next few Even with a HIA, tax cuts, etc. Outside of new info it is likely that the floor of rates has risen across the curve in the US but the secular trend not changed. I think the more interesting and potentially profitable question is what does Brexit, the US election, upcoming geopolitical events, and macro imbalances outside the US imply for asset prices Of course, the simplest way of apprehending quotARRIVALquot is of a realistic-looking sy-fy dramatic supposition. The disc-shaped on-edge pods ferrying unknown aliens arrive simultaneously above a dozen world cities, resembling truncated elms or sycamores, with free-floating animated roots, more or less. Any number of forerunner sy-fy flicks have featured similar beings, from quotWar of the Worldsquot (2005) to any number of smaller, lower-cost cinematic visitors. This type of alien seems to be a popular concept for this mysterious stranger scenario. So 8211Why have they come, all of a sudden A melancholy Amy Adams, playing college prof and top language maven Dr. Louise Banks8211 who appears without makeup throughout the proceedingsmdasha talented linguist contacted by Forest Whitaker, as Colonel Weber (no first name), military official, to try to get through what it is the aliens may be trying to say. Except they don39t enunciatemdashthey splootch out finger-y type things that squirt out roundish inky ideographs. Jeremy Renner, playing Ian Donnelly (what No PhD What are they saying here about credentialized scientists in the military mindset) a recruited scientist, tries to be of collegial assistance, but does not have much to do aside from snappy retorts and functioning as a sanity foil brake on Adams39 onscreen audacity. On the deeper level, coming as it does moments after the election, my immediate link is that these alien beings, separated by a wall of impermeable glass inside the odd space vehicle with no interior furnishings but the separation barrier, represent the current president-elect. He too, to the LA and DC crowd, an alien being, apparently, as difficult to grok as an interplanetary essence. An arrival that is unheralded, appearing one day over the landscape, and something that requires 39translation39 from the being to Earthlings. Since each culture perceives the aliens as their lens permits them to, most of them regard the appearances as threatening, and begin to act reflexively as if they were being attacked. Prior space films ndashespecially in the 50s and 80s8211usually feature US military sending in a fleet of fortified soldiers, blasters at the ready, shooting like gatling guns at the foreign spacecraft. Pre-emptively, before the aliens can exert their mysterious powers on the Earthlings for good or evil.. A hint that the aliens here are sentient and not intending evil comes when a slightly less misty screen capcha shows these trunky beings with warm, sympathetic eyes. To be sure, world war is a looming possibility as each nation races to decipher what these arrivals want, mean or intend. Such threat also imperils the hard-working linguist and her scientific sidekick. And the continent, should war break out and the aliens turn out to be bad varmints with evil-intentioned trigger splootches. That would be macro-aggressions, we surmise. It is noteworthy that the key figure sent to decode the language of these untoward visitors is a woman (hint, hint), but assisted by the sensitive and exophthalmic Renner (who also has Trumpish eyes), The drama inheres in the earnest efforts of the protagonists to decode the splotches emitted: Do they betoken threat Do they mean something less than the imminent catastrophic end of mankind We are treated to linguistic theory, good for Indonesian jungle tribes as well as for intergalactic protoplasmic arrangements. Threading through the story are hints of tragic events residing in the Banks character39s life, but we don39t learn all that much until well into the film. The acting is convincing, what you need to compel interest. The script is energetic enough. The movie audience with whom we watched the film seemed glued to the onscreen events, though it is more an intellectual effort than an actioner. Just as well. So my guess is that quotArrivalquot is the Hollywood Dream Machine39s emissary sent to unclued-in Democrats from higher-order Conservatives in order to translateinterpret the Donald Trump phenom creature to the administrators and groundlings of planet America and elsewhere on the globe, where leaders scratch their pates in wonderment and confusion. At just the time when the astonishing revelation of the 2016 US elections breaks worldwide, to the consternation and bafflement of all. As an interpretive vehicle, it shows how earnest are those who seek desperately to understand this unheralded event and emergence. Who knows Maybe the Amy Adams character is a stand-in for Martha Raddatz, intrepid and daunting Hildy Johnson-ish reporter. Raddatz39es true tile: ABC network39s Chief Global Affairs Correspondenthellip width191 height243 Opposing new, better machinery is always and everywhere a complaint about productivity in the name of quotthe peoplequot. When the self-driving vehicles actually take to the roads in numbers, someone somewhere will trash one and it will be Big News. It isn39t neither will the political efforts to prohibit innovation be new. The English Crown started banning industrial machinery in the 16th century and they are still at it, thanks to the Princely idiot who is first in line. As the Liberty lads o39er the sea Bought their freedom, and cheaply, with blood, So we, boys, we Will die fighting, or live free, And down with all kings but King Ludd When the web that we weave is complete, And the shuttle exchanged for the sword, We will fling the winding-sheet O39er the despot at our feet, And dye it deep in the gore he has pour39d. Though black as his heart its hue, Since his veins are corrupted to mud, Yet this is the dew Which the tree shall renew Of Liberty, planted by Ludd I applaud the prescience of those who made the election prediction and stuck with it these many months and hope they were well rewarded. Regarding the fall-out, I have some in my own extended family going through the stages of denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. My sister-in-laws are in the stage of anger. But as market participants and professional, the quicker we get to acceptance and beyond, the better. As the chair points out, the market got to acceptance around 2 am the mourning after the election. There are remarkable changes going on with bonds, crude, emerging markets all way down, Dow outperforming and big shifting of sectors. It is fascinating to watch the speed at which the discounting process unfolds in real time. Somewhat related I am reading the Chernow39s biography of Washington and highly recommend it. When I complete it, I will review it, but one thing I find interesting is the level of risk Washington was willing to take on. He had a great deal to lose when accepting the commission to lead the fledgling army, reputation and honor being the greatest. Also he was amazingly calm and brave under literal fire. In an early battle he emerged unscathed but with four bullet holes in his hat and garments. Qualities very fitting for markets and life. Stefan Jovanovich writes: I boycott Chernow39s work, probably out of envy. The man is incredibly industrious. But, he is also completely credulous. Washington had a great deal to prove as a soldier when he went to Philadelphia wearing his colonial militia uniform. He had participated in the greatest defeat of British troops in over a century of campaigning against the French - Braddock39s massacre. He was guilty of having allowed a French officer - Ensign Joseph Coulon de Villiers de Jumonville - to be literally butchered by the troops under his first independent command after the officer had surrendered. He was forced to surrender Fort Necessity to Jumonville39s brother who made Washington include in the surrender documents an admission of his guilt in allowing Ensign Joseph to be slaughtered. For the rest of his life Washington tap danced around this fact, claiming that he had not known what the surrender document said because it was written in French. Like Churchill in his Boer War adventures, Washington was able to make lemonade out of lemons and wrote the story of his adventures but, just as Churchill39s own part had involved defeat and capture, Washington39s actual campaigning experience had been a loser. This was part of the reason why his attempt to join the British regular Army was rejected. Governor Dinwiddie did his best to create the image of Washington as the hero of the Battle of Monongahela but that is like Roosevelt39s preserving Douglas MacArthur after he skedaddled from the Philippines. Political necessity required both men to be treated as war heroes after they had presided over military disasters. Washington went to Philadelphia to redeem and establish his honor, not to quotdefendquot it. He was the husband by second marriage to the richest woman in the colonies, but he was, in no sense, a figure of respect for his military prowess. But, judged among men who had never even fought duels, let alone served in wartime, he did have the virtue of having actually been shot at. Even so, he was chosen to be Commander in Chief for purely political reasons Franklin knew that the Southern states had to become involved in the rebellion if it was to have any hope of succeeding. The New Englanders had begun the fight but the merchant colonies - NY and PA - and the planters - VA and SC - needed to be brought on board. What makes Washington a great man is that he did achieve his goal - he became the American Cincinnatus. His own personal courage is indisputable he led from the front - always. His example was so dominating that it compelled men young enough to be his children to put their own lives at risk. Both Hamilton and Monroe were wounded, Monroe almost fatally, while serving under Washington39s command. But, to start the story with a tale of illustrious George is to fall into what Gary Gallagher rightly calls the Appomattox trap - i. e. of course, everyone in 1861, 1862, 1863 and 1864 knew the South would lose, their Ouija boards had already shown them what happened at Appomattox. Washington in 1775 was not the man he would become. Up to now the trade balance of the United States has been determined as a residual item, in other words it is not a target that policy makers and citizens look at but is the result of other variables like GNP growth, inflation, productivity, the value of the dollar, opportunities, preferences, etc. in the US and abroad. If the Trump administration decides to target a reduction in the trade deficit (as seemed implicit in the campaign) that is a MAJOR change in how the economy operates and I wonder what consequences it would have. Is it even possible Of course it is possible and many countries (such as Japan in the 60-70s, germany, china) have operated with such policies), but it is a big change in thinking for the US. My economics professors decades ago derided such policies with the epithet 39mercantilist39 and refused to even discuss them (quotit39s not Pareto optimal, so forget itquot). But at least some countries (esp. developing countries) have had some success with it as long as the ROW did not follow their example. We now understand such policies have some benefits as well as costs. What form would the trade policy of the Trump administration take The most attractive would be an export promotion strategy, like the Asian Tiger countries. I have a friend who believes that the US should set up Special Economic Zones like the Shenzhen area in China, where special rules are applied to favor the establishment of new enterprises that are oriented to export. Low taxes, light regulation, waiver of union rules and so on would be targeted to a small geographic area (near an international transportation hub) with a view to boosting its productivity and export ability. It is a very Asian top-down approach and have some doubts whether this could be done in the context of Western decentralized, democratic and rule of law traditions. But there is an even bigger problem: where would the exports go to, when there are no longer any large developed countries available as export destinations. The other strategy would be an import compression or 39onshoring production39 strategy. This can be accomplished via Tariffs such as Trump has proposed but would have the side effect of raising the cost of products to US consumers. In addition because one country39s imports are another country39s exports it would result in a decrease in international trade. Since the mid-2000s international trade has been stagnant (after a period of high growth) so it would not be surprising that after Trump, Brexit, etc, it would turn down. What would be the investment implications of a fall in international trade and investment Historical periods of decreased international trade are not exactly bullish for the economy. As you can see, although I do believe the Trump administration will be the greatest and best, I have trouble seeing how the policies can be applied without causing major changes and some kind of negative disruptions in the world economy. I would like to hear from you any ideas how we can analyze the situation in a clear and practical way. What asset prices will be affected and how. Anonymous replies: My sense is that the Trump trade policy would work through tax incentives (like the tax incentives now offered by states to businesses who locate or stay there) rather than through tariffs. West coast dude suggests: Future increases in prices of consumer products as a result of switching to domestic production are already being reflected in the price of bonds, which are falling in response to higher expected inflation. The Institute for Energy Research (IER) is not an objective organization. It has been described as a front group for the fossil fuel industry. Even if they were objective, this argument against solar is distorted and against free market principles. Yes, it39s true. Solar ITC is important to corporate investors. However, that credit does not work as many believe. Specifically, I39m guessing Mr. Trump may lack understanding of how environmental, energy and tax policies work together. Let39s begin with tax policies. It turns out solar ITC39s net cost to taxpayers is zero. It39s less than zero. It39s zero for two reasons. Companies claiming ITC must reduce their asset39s tax basis by half the ITC39s value (to 85). Since solar qualifies for five-year ACRS, taxpayers retrieve half their ITC almost immediately. Recovery from basis adjustment is half the story. Because of ACRS rules, after four years of operations, solar owners find they have almost zero tax deductions. Their largest expenses are land leases and interest payments. The lack of deductions is because depreciation expenses have been consumed and production costs are nil. At year five, solar farm owners jump to the maximum federal and state income tax brackets. Consequently, federal, state and local governments have a new tax base and new tax revenues, which are so large that they cover any remaining ITC payouts and more. Thus, if ITC stimulates new investment, taxpayers fully recover their ITC and earn additional tax revenues year after year for 20 years. While the federal ITC may be an incentive, it39s not enough for most businesses. If it were, solar would be deployed in all 50 states. It39s not. As evidence, consider North Carolina. This state has massive investments in business-owned solar farms. Compare North Carolina with Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi. The differences are significant. The reason ITC helpful but not sufficient is because of environmental policies. The primary incentives to build solar is provided by individual states. If a state declines to offer incentives, no solar will be deployed. Solar39s main driver is state environmental and energy policies. State39s primary motivation is the Clean Air Act. Many states are non-compliant with National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Other states are in violation of cross-border pollution policies. In either case, non-compliant states cannot offer businesses new air permits. Without new permits, it39s difficult for a state to grow their economy. If mitigating pollution is not enough, states have other motivations. It turns out solar power will reduce states39 electricity prices. Solar reduces the need to build new transmission lines across the state. Solar also reduces the need to construct more central power plants. Considering everything, some states find solar brings more winners than losers. Free markets win, consumers win, politicians win, local distribution utilities win, and businesses win. Generating utilities lose, coal miners lose, and rails lose. Mr. Trump may find revoking solar tax credits has unforeseen consequences. Should he convince Congress to move in this direction, they may be surprised by bipartisan pushback from key states. Should Trump and Congress persevere, they may be forced to revoke coal credits, nuclear credits, and do away with all other energy development incentives. Mr. Trump may have cross-threaded his goals. He wants to develop more energy from all sources. At the same time, he39s advocating the removal of costless incentives that stymie energy development, business growth, tax bases, and new jobs. He should ignore any advice from IER. They appear to have an agenda. There have only been 8 US presidential elections in the history of SampP 500 futures. In 7 of the 8 instances, the SampP 500 had a net gain in the 10 trading days ending on Election Day. With 8 of the 10 days complete this year, the net change of the SampP 500 is -58. The SampP 500 declined on the day after Election Day in 6 of the 8 instances with an average loss of 11 points or 1.1. 10 days ending Net change Day after election Net change 1161984 1.30 0.8 1171984 -2.80 -1.6 1181988 -9.00 -3.2 1191988 -1.00 -0.4 1131992 4.20 1.0 1141992 -3.65 -0.9 1151996 6.30 0.9 1161996 14.00 2.0 1172000 41.00 2.9 1182000 -30.70 -2.1 1122004 27.10 2.5 1132004 14.50 1.3 1142008 43.90 4.6 1152008 -45.20 -4.5 1162012 18.40 1.3 1172012 -36.10 -2.5 I agree that the BLS number will be bullish tomorrow 20161104. Why was there recently an article from NYT singing the praises of impartiality of the BLS Seems suspicious to me, who considers BLS nothing but a bunch of cronies. The payroll taxes are shown. Not really bullish. However the recent rise covers the exact period that will be sampled in the Jobs Report. The subsequent downturn is not in that sample. Note: this view of the payroll taxes views the consequences for the employment scenario. If we targeted the impact on GDP we would get a more bullish picture. Stefan Jovanovich writes: People have been doing sabermetrics forever. They just didn39t have the mathematical tools. Exit velocity - which is the best measure of a hitter39s quotpowerquot - was the first thing scouts looked for, but they had to judge it by the sound of the ball leaving the bat. That is why the first thing a good scout would do is show up early and check the wood on the bats of the team he was scouting. Theo Epstein is a bright, bright guy and he deserves nothing but praise but his reputation still rests in large measure on Dave Robert39s ability to steal bases and Bill Mueller39s pure grace. The first of the month rolled in and the monthly Slab City poker players gathered in a shantytown trailer and pulled 100 bills from their pockets. They had just collected their first-of-the-month government checks making it the big night out on this outlaw town on sand in southern California. Each swallowed or shot methamphetamine, and anted one hundred. The night after Halloween is when the real ghouls came out to trick and treat. A kitchen timer in front of a kerosene lantern before a broken window was set for one hour, and began ticking. Eight men circled the poker pot on a spool table, as their pupils enlarged to saucers. At Go they wedged through the trailer door in a land rush sprint. The goal was each to work his way under the cloak of darkness undetected across the town of 300 souls stealing whatever they could get their hands on. Whoever returned with the most loot before the timer rang would win the pot. The strategies were to go light and carry everything in covering the most ground most took backpacks, bags, or suitcases. But Irish Adam would return the winner with a shopping cart (at the sacrifice of speed and risk of detection) full of booty. When the timer rang, the stolen items were tallied. Irish gathered the dough, and shouted, 39Meth on the house39 Amarillo Slim said, 39Seldom do the lambs slaughter the butchers,39 but a posse is forming to put an end to the first of the month poker games. How would you define uncertainty in a market context The market seems to maximize its closes and opens and other bench market prices so as to maximize uncertainty among all the players so as to maximize trading of all systems and beliefs Pete Earle writes: The market is the kind of fighter that either jumps on you at the bell in the first round, testing your defenses and seeing if it can catch you cold (quotdryquot). It is also the type to, in the last round, or last minute or so of the last round, burst forth with brutality and attempt to catch you while you39re tired or confident about a win. Eddy39s Mom is the brains in the family so, like Vic, Russ, Rocky and the other smart people, she does her best to ignore politics. She tolerates my historical obsessions because, as she said to Eddy the other night, quotit keeps your father off the streetsquot. Now that it is only a week before the election, she has relented enough to listen to my data babble. I went over the polls from early last week - to remove all possibility of their results being tainted by quotthe newsquot. What I was looking for were the thumb prints, where the pollsters had done their best to skew the results based not on the survey responses but on the sampling assumptions. I looked at 3 polls: ABC, IBD and CNN and went far enough into the footnotes to find out how they weighted their samples among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. ABC39s electorate: 36D, 27R, 31I IBD: 37D, 29R, 34I CNN: 37D, 31R, 32I The Gallup people have stopped doing election campaign polls, but they continue to do periodic surveys of the registered voter party affiliations. The most recent one, taken in December 2015, showed 4243R, 3536D, 2122I, and 1 3rd Party. I trust those numbers for one very simple reason: they reflect the actual distribution of elected representatives among the 3 party groups. Measured by solely by ballot box results, the country is 75 Republican. If you take the data from the ABC, IBD and CNN surveys and allocate the results using Gallup39s distribution of party affiliations, you get ABC: Clinton - 40, Trump - 39 IBD: Clinton - 37, Trump - 37 CNN: Clinton - 39, Trump - 41 The announced results by the pollsters, using their own distributions, were quite different: ABC: Clinton - 50, Trump - 37 IBD: Clinton - 41, Trump - 41 CNN: Clinton - 51, Trump - 45 When I showed these numbers to Eddy39s Mom, she was not surprised. Neither was I. But, what she said was something that I have heard only from Pat Caddell among the public figures and he made the remark tangentially, in discussing the quotundecidedquot voters. This is, announced the EMom, an quotundisclosedquot election. In public here in Tar Heel land, Vic39s wardroom rules generally apply people don39t think it is productive or polite to discuss politics in public gatherings. But, this year that is overwhelmingly the case. The only people who think they have an open invitation to discuss quotthe electionquot are the Democrats39 hard-core patronage constituents: the professional academics and the people of color who are on the dole. In 1980 a week before the election the quotundisclosedquot were 12-15 of the electorate this year they may be closer to 20. If the quotundisclosedquot split evenly and the decline in black turnout in Virginia does not continue (their early voting is down nearly 50 from 2012), Mrs. Clinton will squeak through. If the quotundisclosedquot vote the way Independents have polled (67 out of 10 for Trump), the incumbent party will lose as badly as they did in 2008. This forgettable book by Adam Kucharski attempts to examine the science of betting, and how to beat the game. It promises a lot but doesn39t deliver. The sciences include math, physics, statistical analysis, probability theory, biology, and artificial intelligence. Kucharski discusses, at a very high level, the attempts and methods of Poincare, Tharp, Markov, Galton et al to predict future outcomes. There is much discussion of the original attempts to beat lotteries, roulette, blackjack, horses, sports, and other games. He wasted too much time covering the methods of the turf groups and syndicates that play in Hong Kong. Also, his description of beating blackjack by various people put me to sleep, with nothing new to add. Many of the rudimentary card counting and computer schemes have been banned in casinos and are irrelevant. There is much discussion of brilliant minds try to exploit flaws in games, but much too anecdotal, too historical. I found no probability equations to be found in the book. Lots of talk about science and math, but no actual science or math. As far as the science, he makes a big deal out of the Kelly Criterion, the Monte Carlo principle, Poisson Distributions, Markov chains, and others but good only for a high school history student. I found his discussion of Galton39s work on inheritance to be quite strange to be included in this tome, and it added nothing. He told a lot of stories about those who worked on beating games, but little else. One could find better, more complete information from Wikipedia. The Perfect Bet was not written for gamblers, casinos, players or scientists, it was written for the general public. I felt like this was more like a history book and was sadly disappointed with the unevenness of the writing. Kucharski also jumped around in the book, and it was due to his fond use of questionable digressions and tangents he went off on. It will probably go on the back shelf of my large gambling book collection, or maybe end up at Goodwill. If one wants to read something good about the science and methods of gambling, try John Scarne39s New Complete Guide To Gambling . Actually everything Scarne wrote is a meal for a lifetime and I recommend reading his entire library. It39s all on Amazon and quite reasonable in price. FYI, Scarne was a world class card mechanic, and if you ever watched the movie, quotThe Sting, quot you39ve already seen his excellent handiwork in the card game on the train. Resources Links
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